Statistical base rates and the prediction of behaviour | Anthony Doob and Rosemary Gartner

By Anthony Doob and Rosemary Gartner ( November 15, 2017, 8:59 AM EST) -- Imagine that a man is charged with killing his wife. There is clear evidence that he had been unfaithful in their marriage. Let us assume that there is known to be a statistically significant relationship between being unfaithful and killing one’s spouse: those who are unfaithful are more likely to kill their spouses than those who are faithful to their spouses....