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| Colin R. Singer |
Higher Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) thresholds, smaller and more sporadic draws, and a pronounced pivot toward category-based and French-language selections now define the system. This analysis offers a legal practitioner’s view of how Express Entry evolved in the first six months of 2025, what it signals for the second half of the year, and how best to prepare clients for an increasingly demanding environment.
Immigration targets contract, and Express Entry contracts with them
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But the numerical reduction alone does not convey the full extent of the shift. More telling is the nature of the invitations issued. All-program draws — once a cornerstone of Express Entry’s openness to Federal Skilled Worker (FSW) and Federal Skilled Trades (FST) candidates — disappeared entirely. Canadian Experience Class (CEC) draws became smaller and less frequent. Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) rounds, long a reliable tool for boosting CRS scores, also dwindled. Instead, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) concentrated its invitations in narrow, category-based draws, with nearly half reserved for French-speaking applicants.
CRS thresholds climb sharply across all categories
The average CRS cutoff during the first half of 2025 reached 617 — a remarkable 136-point increase from the same period in 2024. This escalation was not merely incidental; it reflected IRCC’s deliberate attempt to select only those candidates who closely align with predefined economic needs or provincial priorities. The lowest CRS score recorded was 379, and that was in a French-language draw. Outside of French-eligible applicants, few candidates could realistically expect an invitation without either a provincial nomination or a job in a designated category such as health care or education.
The legal implication is clear: prospective applicants must now be more strategic than ever. A high score alone is no longer sufficient unless it aligns with a specific policy objective. Express Entry has evolved from a general merit-based system into a calibrated instrument of economic planning. Lawyers advising clients must adjust accordingly, ensuring applications are framed not only for eligibility but also for strategic relevance to current federal and provincial priorities.
Month by month: A controlled and selective tempo
The trajectory of Express Entry in 2025 was established early. January opened with two modest CEC rounds and a high-threshold PNP draw. These were not expansionary measures — they were signs of restraint. In February, a major French-language draw (6,500 ITAs at CRS 428) dominated the landscape, reinforcing the federal emphasis on linguistic duality. Meanwhile, provincial nominees had to contend with CRS cutoffs above 800 in some rounds, making the nomination pathway less accessible than it had been in recent years.
March confirmed the new policy regime. The largest draw of the year — 7,500 ITAs — was again for French speakers. Other candidates faced CRS thresholds of over 700, unless they had significant provincial or sectoral support. In April and May, IRCC broadened its category-based scope, inviting early childhood educators and health care workers, albeit in limited numbers. Canadian Experience Class applicants received just 500 invitations in one of May’s two draws, down from tens of thousands during pandemic recovery years.
By June, the pattern had solidified. Draws increased in frequency but not in volume, and most were highly specialized. Health care received two targeted rounds, but even these were limited to 500 ITAs each — hardly enough to meet national demand. PNP draw sizes continued to decline, and provinces began to signal that they were nearing the end of their 2025 quotas.
The decline of the Provincial Nominee Program’s influence
The Provincial Nominee Program, once a key lever for Express Entry candidates to boost their profiles, has experienced a significant reduction in 2025. Eleven PNP-linked draws produced just 5,495 ITAs — down 60 per cent from the same period in 2024. Legal practitioners across the country have reported growing difficulties securing nomination certificates for eligible clients, particularly in Alberta, British Columbia and Ontario. These provinces confirmed that their 2025 allocations were 15-20 per cent lower than the previous year and were being exhausted quickly.
This has two implications. First, clients should not view the PNP as a guaranteed route to an ITA. Second, legal advisers must closely track provincial program announcements, as nomination windows are narrowing and closing faster than in previous years. The shrinking role of the PNP also intensifies pressure on clients to maximize their core CRS scores through language testing and Canadian work experience.
French language proficiency becomes the defining advantage
Perhaps the most consistent theme of 2025 thus far has been the centrality of French-language ability in Express Entry. Nearly 18,500 of the 38,845 ITAs issued between January and June went to candidates selected on the basis of French proficiency. That’s almost 48 per cent of the total. These draws featured the lowest CRS thresholds and the largest single batches of invitations. In one case, a candidate with a score under 400 received an ITA, while general-category applicants needed over 600.
This trend is not incidental. It reflects long-standing federal commitments to francophone immigration outside Quebec and growing concern over the demographic sustainability of French-speaking minority communities. For legal advisers, the practical takeaway is simple: French proficiency — even at an intermediate level — now carries disproportionate strategic value. Advising clients to undertake TEF or TCF exams is no longer optional; it is essential to maintaining a competitive edge.
Sectoral selection expands, but remains limited in scope
The 2025 calendar also introduced expanded category-based draws for targeted professions. Health care and education received early attention, with 1,000 ITAs each. Additional sectors such as STEM and trades are expected to be added later in the year. However, these rounds have remained limited in size and scope, suggesting that IRCC views them as supplements rather than replacements for broader selection categories.
While this diversification of draws creates new opportunities, it also raises the bar for preparation. Candidates must demonstrate not only that they meet the general Express Entry requirements, but also that their work experience and credentials precisely match the occupational definitions established by IRCC. For legal counsel, this demands meticulous review of NOC codes, credential recognition pathways and provincial alignment.
Constraining factors: Labour market, housing and processing
Beyond the draw data, a wider set of contextual factors has influenced Express Entry’s mid-year posture. National job vacancies fell by 18 per cent year-over-year, weakening the economic rationale for high immigration levels. Concurrently, housing affordability and availability remain major political issues, with the federal government citing supply constraints as a justification for slowing population growth. These pressures have lent political legitimacy to a more cautious immigration stance.
At the same time, IRCC has improved processing capacity. With fewer applications to assess, the department has returned to its six-month service standard for 85 per cent of Express Entry cases — a notable improvement from mid-2024. This may ease client concerns about delays, but it also underscores the government’s broader objective of aligning immigration intake with realistic service delivery expectations.
Strategic recommendations for candidates and counsel
Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, strategic positioning will be paramount. Express Entry will continue to run, but success will favour the prepared, the flexible and the well-advised. Legal practitioners should encourage clients to:
- Improve French-language skills to access sub-400 CRS French draws.
- Pursue nomination where possible, but act early before 2025 allocations close.
- Keep all supporting documents current and ready for submission on short notice.
- Monitor IRCC’s evolving list of category-based priorities and tailor profiles accordingly.
- Maximize points through education and language, especially as job-offer points are no longer available.
Outlook for 2026: Moderate rebound, continued selectivity
IRCC will release its 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan in November. Preliminary signals suggest that a modest increase in immigration targets is possible, aimed at reassuring employers while retaining the focus on category-based draws and regional skill alignment. Should total annual admissions return to the 450,000 range, Express Entry may regain some of its former inclusivity. However, there is little indication that the program will revert to general all-program draws at scale.
Instead, French proficiency, sector-specific experience and provincial nomination will likely remain the dominant pathways. Lawyers should prepare for a system that rewards precision and alignment over general eligibility — and equip their clients to compete accordingly.
Colin R. Singer is immigration counsel and founder of www.immigration.ca. He can be reached at colin@immigration.ca.
The opinions expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the author’s firm, its clients, LexisNexis Canada, Law360 Canada or any of its or their respective affiliates. This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal advice.
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